Questions

The balance of accounts payable at Dec 2021 was USD 2.2 billion. We have made payments of USD 1.6 billion so far. However, it is projected that at the end of this fiscal year, the total amount of accounts payable, including debt of 2022, amounts to USD 2.4 billion. That is, an increase of 9% compared to 2021. Our objective is to keep or reduce the stock of arrears for 2023.

For 2023, we don´t expect to have operations with multilateral guarantees. These guarantees are granted to facilitate market access. In the case of the ECU, due to the country risk levels (and the returns that these imply), the possibility of accessing markets at similar rates to the average is still far away.

Our strategy is to carry out liability management (LM) operations over the next few years, in order to smooth the amortization curve. LM operations are dependent on economic growth in real terms and budget growth, which we expect to see in 2023 and , as well as progress in the development of the domestic market. These actions will contribute to strengthen our capacity to honor all obligations in the future. Some actions on multilateral credit operations will also be carried out, especially converting variable rates into fixed rates gradually.

The main source of financing for the country comes from multilaterals, and this will continue for the next few years, and even more so, to the extent that we can count on the support from the IMF. On the other hand, we have the domestic market, for which we have a development plan underway, which will allow us to expand the demand for government securities, beyond our natural buyer which is BIESS, the Security Pension Fund´s Bank.

The Non-Financial Public Sector fiscal programming for the end of 2022, shows a surplus balance of USD 1,178 million (1% of GDP). On the other hand, the Central Government shows a deficit of USD 2,008 million (1.6% of GDP). Regarding social spending, specifically referring to cash transference, in 2021 it was USD 1,242 million, while for 2022 an expense of USD 1,265 million is expected at the end of the year, evidencing the incorporation of the "My best years" program. Low execution in goods and services recovers in November, due to the dynamics of execution at the end of each year. Perhaps this year it took a little longer, but normally there is more execution in the last quarter of each year. The Government Budget has increased the resources for health sector in order to cover 100% of the required budget for medicines and other supplies. In security, security payments have been prioritized in the budget. Spending has increased by approximately USD100 million, considering new hiring of around 8,000 police officers.

The fiscal income of the Government Budget comes mainly from the income generated by the export of crude oil and those generated by tax collection. In relation to oil revenues, expectations for 2023 are conservative. We do expect higher production volume in 2023 (188 million barrels), but we are assuming an average crude oil price of USD 64.8 per barrel, which is lower than the price assumption of IMF for 2023. On the other hand, tax revenues include the positive effects of the tax reform and the recovery of the Ecuadorian economy; therefore, tax collection is expected to perform better. Likewise, an increase in non-tax revenues is expected, also associated with the recovery of the Ecuadorian economy.

The government has advanced the valuation of two possible projects that could be monetized during 2023: Monteverde Maritime Terminal and Sopladora Hydroelectric Project. At the moment, the different ministries and public entities involved are getting ready to present these projects to potential investors.

Based on our general policy, based on keeping ordered and sustainable public finances, the government seeks to continue working with the IMF, in order to obtain funding under better financial conditions, both in terms of interest rates and maturities, to guarantee the debt service in the medium term. It is worth noting that the program with the IMF facilitates the support of other international organizations such as the IDB and the World Bank. The current agreement, the Extended Fund Facility EFF, expires on December 31, 2022. However, we will have annual follow-up reviews in line with the Fiscal Consolidation program established in the agreement. Nevertheless, the Fiscal Programming 2023-2026 did not include a new financing agreement with the IMF among its assumptions.

With regards to the National Assembly decision to repeal the tax Law, which is in force since November 29, 2021 (Ley Orgánica para el Desarrollo Económico y Sostenibilidad Fiscal tras la pandemia de Covid-19) the President has 30 days to respond to the Assembly. After the total veto, this matter has to wait at least one more year for the Assembly to be able to consider it again in the Plenary. In fact, after taking these 30 days, and taking the whole year into account, the matter cannot be considered in the Plenary until 2024. Regarding our multilateral agreements, we have already contact IMF executives, also the World Bank, to clarify this issue and to confirm that this event will not jeopardize the agreement in any way or form. The Minister has mentioned our board meeting on December 14, after which we expect a new disbursement from the IMF for 700 million, during the last part of December.

Forgiveness has been modified to only consider credits up to 3,000 dollars and the government is now working on the implementation of this agreement (10,000 credits forgiveness has been ruled out).